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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $22.50B, down 12% YoY but up 16% sequentially; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.33 and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.40. Results reflected higher ASPs and mix, with Energy and Services profitability up; adjusted EBITDA was $3.40B and GAAP operating margin 4.1% .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, Tesla delivered a modest revenue beat and near-inline EPS: revenue $22.09B* consensus vs $22.50B actual; EPS $0.404* consensus vs $0.40 actual. Prior two quarters were misses on both revenue and EPS as Model Y refresh and macro/tariff headwinds pressured results [GetEstimates]* .
  • Strategic pivot advanced: Austin Robotaxi launched in June with limited scope; management targets coverage of roughly half the U.S. population by year-end (regulatory-dependent). FSD adoption rose ~25% since V12/V13, and unsupervised personal use is targeted in select U.S. cities by year-end .
  • Guidance signals: FY25 CapEx outlook lowered to “in excess of $9B” (from >$10B in Q1), energy deployments expected to accelerate in 2H, volume production of the more affordable model now planned for 2H 2025, and Cybercab still slated for volume in 2026. Tariffs and the repeal of the $7,500 IRA EV credit are expected to weigh on near-term demand and regulatory credit revenues .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Robotaxi launch and autonomy roadmap: First paid Robotaxi service launched in Austin with plans to expand service area rapidly and target coverage of ~half the U.S. population by year-end, subject to approvals; management also targets unsupervised personal FSD by year-end in select geographies .
  • Pricing/mix and Energy profitability: Automotive revenue rose 19% sequentially as ASPs improved with new Model Y; Energy and Services gross profit reached records, including Energy gross profit of $846M and strong Supercharging profitability and stall growth .
  • AI/compute and product pipeline: Added 16k H200 GPUs (total ~67k H100 equivalents) for training; first builds of the more affordable model occurred in June with volume production planned for 2H 2025; Optimus roadmap clarified (prototypes in months, production ramp starting next year) .

What Went Wrong

  • Tariff and policy headwinds: Tariff costs rose by ~$300M sequentially (about two-thirds in automotive), with further impacts expected; repeal of IRA EV credit by end of the quarter will pressure near-term demand and deliveries, while emissions penalties reduced to zero are expected to lower regulatory credit revenue .
  • Automotive margin pressure: Despite sequential improvement, YoY operating margin fell to 4.1% (from 6.3% in Q2 2024) on lower deliveries, lower regulatory credits, higher SBC, and increased R&D for AI/robotics; total GAAP gross margin was 17.2% .
  • Deployment volatility: Energy deployments declined sequentially to 9.6 GWh (from 10.4 GWh in Q1 and 11.0 GWh in Q4), with management cautioning quarter-to-quarter variability due to tariff/policy dynamics even as profitability improved .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$25.707 $19.335 $22.496
Diluted EPS (GAAP, $)$0.66 $0.12 $0.33
Diluted EPS (non-GAAP, $)$0.73 $0.27 $0.40
GAAP Gross Margin %16.3% 16.3% 17.2%
Operating Margin %6.2% 2.1% 4.1%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$4.922 $2.814 $3.401
Segment Revenue ($USD Billions)Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Automotive$19.798 $13.967 $16.661
Energy Generation & Storage$3.061 $2.730 $2.789
Services & Other$2.848 $2.638 $3.046
KPIsQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Deliveries (units)495,570 336,681 384,122
Energy Storage Deployed (GWh)11.0 10.4 9.6
Global Vehicle Inventory (Days of Supply)12 22 24
Supercharger Connectors (stalls)65,495 67,316 70,228
Actual vs ConsensusQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue (Consensus vs Actual, $USD Billions)$27.132* vs $25.707 $21.327* vs $19.335 $22.088* vs $22.496
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS (Consensus vs Actual, $)$0.767* vs $0.73 $0.415* vs $0.27 $0.404* vs $0.40

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
CapExFY 2025>$10B (Q1 call) >$9B (Q2 call) Lowered
More Affordable Model2025Start production in 1H 2025 (Q4 update) First builds in June; volume production in 2H 2025; ramp slower than initially expected (Q2 call) Timing clarified; slower ramp
Robotaxi Service2025Pilot launch later this year (Q4 update/Q1 call) Launched in Austin (June); expand to ~half U.S. population by YE (regulatory-dependent) Initiated; expansion planned
Cybercab (Robotaxi Product)2026Volume production in 2026 Volume production in 2026 maintained Maintained
Energy Deployments2025≥50% YoY growth expected “Very strong” 2H outlook; variability persists Maintained positive outlook
Regulatory Credits2025No explicit prior guidanceEmissions penalty reduced to zero; expect lower regulatory credit revenue Lowered

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 & Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
AI/Technology InitiativesDeployed ~50k H100 training cluster (Cortex); FSD V13 improvements Added 16k H200 (total ~67k H100 equivalents); Robotaxi Austin launched; targeting ~10x parameter count improvements Accelerating execution
Supply Chain/Regionalization85%+ USMCA content; strong localization strategy Tariff costs +$300M QoQ; plan domestic LFP cell production by year-end Headwinds with mitigation
Tariffs/MacroSection 232 auto tariffs impact; CapEx elevated IRA EV credit repeal to weigh on U.S. demand; regulatory credits to decline Worsening near term
Product PerformanceRecord Q4 deliveries; all-time-low COGS/vehicle Model Y best-seller in multiple markets; LR RWD Model Y launched Stable, mix supports ASPs
Regional TrendsFSD (Supervised) launched in China; EU pending EU/China approvals pending; test drives up 20% in NA; entry into India Expanding, regulatory gating
Regulatory/LegalEU approvals pending; China FSD launch Unsupervised personal FSD targeted by YE in select U.S. cities Advancing
R&D Execution (Optimus, Dojo)Pilot Optimus builds in 2025; Dojo plans Optimus 3 prototypes in months; production next year; target 1M/yr in <5 yrs; Dojo 2 scale next year; AI5 chip timeline Rapid progress
Energy BusinessRecord Q4 deployments; strong profitability Record Energy gross profit ($846M); strong 2H forecast; Megafactory Shanghai deployments begin Profitable growth

Management Commentary

  • “We were able to successfully launch Robotaxi… we will be launching autonomous ride-hailing in most of the country… probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year” (Elon Musk) .
  • “Operating expenses… will continue to grow. We believe even in the current environment, it is the right strategy to keep making investments in these areas to position us for the long term” (Vaibhav Taneja) .
  • “We expanded AI training compute with an additional 16k H200 GPUs… bringing Cortex to a total of 67k H100 equivalents” .
  • “First builds of a more affordable model in June, with volume production planned for the second half of 2025” .
  • “Energy… gross profit increased… reaching a record of $846 million” and “We started deploying Megapacks from Megafactory Shanghai” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Robotaxi rollout economics and scale: Service launched with handful of vehicles; plan to 10x Austin area and expand to Bay Area and other states; Cybercab designed for sub-$0.30/mile long-term; near-term fleet cost/mile ~ ~$0.50 (conceptual) with financing available via balance sheet and future debt once cash flows are proven .
  • FSD adoption and pricing: ~25% increase in FSD penetration since V12/V13; subscription at $99/month framed as “personal chauffeur”; management plans to gradually loosen attention requirements as safety confidence increases .
  • Unsupervised personal FSD timeline: Management targets availability by year-end in select U.S. cities; emphasized cautious, safety-first rollout .
  • Optimus ramp: Optimus 3 prototypes in 3–4 months, production start next year; management aspires to ~1M units/year within ~5 years, acknowledging typical S-curve ramp risks .
  • Dojo and AI chips: Dojo 2 scaling next year; AI5 chip targeted for line production around end of next year; export-limit nerfing likely outside U.S. .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 delivered a modest revenue beat and near-inline EPS vs consensus: $22.50B actual vs $22.09B* consensus; $0.40 non-GAAP EPS actual vs $0.404* consensus [GetEstimates]*.
  • Prior two quarters missed on both revenue and EPS: Q1 2025 $19.34B actual vs $21.33B* consensus and $0.27 actual vs $0.415* consensus; Q4 2024 $25.71B actual vs $27.13B* consensus and $0.73 actual vs $0.767* consensus [GetEstimates]*.
  • Model refresh timing, tariff/policy headwinds, and regulatory credit declines underpin estimate risk in Q3–Q4; management lowered CapEx outlook and flagged near-term delivery uncertainty in the U.S. due to IRA credit repeal, suggesting potential downward revisions to near-term auto volumes and regulatory credits, while Energy profitability and 2H deployments offer offset .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term demand and margin headwinds from IRA credit repeal and tariffs will likely pressure U.S. deliveries and regulatory credits; watch Q3 mix/ASP resilience and Q4 demand elasticity amid policy changes .
  • Autonomy is the core narrative: the Robotaxi launch and potential unsupervised personal FSD by YE could re-rate the stock’s medium-term multiple if regulatory approvals and safety metrics track as guided; monitor service-area expansion cadence and KPI disclosures (miles, interventions) .
  • Energy strength provides diversification: record Energy gross profit ($846M) and strong 2H outlook support consolidated margins even as deployments remain volatile quarter-to-quarter; track domestic LFP cell ramp by year-end to mitigate tariff impacts .
  • Capital allocation: FY25 CapEx now “> $9B” (down from >$10B), with spending focused on AI compute, Cybercab/Semi lines, and energy manufacturing; Opex (R&D) will continue to rise with AI/robotics investment .
  • Product roadmap: First builds of the more affordable model occurred in June; volume production in 2H 2025 with ramp slower than initially expected—monitor ASPs/mix and fixed-cost absorption improvements as ramp progresses .
  • Non-GAAP adjustments matter: Bitcoin mark-to-market drove $284M gain in Q2 (vs $125M loss in Q1), adding volatility to other income; Adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP net income are now presented net of digital asset gains/losses starting Q1 2025—use non-GAAP for operating trend analysis .
  • Trading lens: Near-term prints may be choppy on U.S. demand and tariffs; key catalysts include Robotaxi scaling milestones, FSD unsupervised personal use availability, EU/China approvals, and Energy domestic LFP progress—position size to regulatory timing risk and monitor estimate revisions through 2H .

Appendix: Cross-References and Notes

  • Q2 2025 financials and segment data: .
  • Operational KPIs and deliveries: .
  • Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 comparatives: .
  • Autonomy/Robotaxi commentary: .
  • Tariffs/IRA credit policy impacts: .
  • Energy profitability and Shanghai Megafactory: .